The race to break modern encryption with quantum computers has just accelerated dramatically. New research indicates the quantum computing power required to crack the widely-used RSA algorithm has been reduced by a factor of ten, bringing practical decryption within reach in the next decade. This isn’t just a theoretical concern; it has immediate implications for the security of online banking, secure communications, and sensitive data protected by RSA.
The Vulnerability of RSA
RSA encryption relies on the difficulty of factoring large numbers into their prime components. While computationally intensive for classical computers, quantum algorithms like Shor’s algorithm can solve this problem exponentially faster. For decades, the size of a quantum computer needed to execute this attack was considered insurmountable. However, recent breakthroughs are rapidly shrinking that requirement.
In 2019, Google researchers lowered the qubit threshold from 170 million to 20 million. By 2025, that number dropped below one million. Now, a team at Iceberg Quantum in Australia has pushed it further, estimating that just 100,000 qubits could break RSA encryption within a month. Achieving the same feat in a single day would require approximately 471,000 qubits.
How the Breakthrough Works: Enhanced Qubit Connectivity
The key to this advancement lies in improved qubit connectivity. Previous quantum computer architectures limited qubits to interacting only with their nearest neighbors. The new research leverages a quantum low-density parity-check (qLDPC) code, enabling qubits to interact across greater distances. This boosts data density within the quantum computer, accelerating the decryption process.
This doesn’t mean breaking RSA is imminent. The hardware challenges remain significant. Building stable, error-corrected qubits at scale is an ongoing obstacle. However, several quantum computing firms, including IBM and Google, are already targeting hundreds of thousands of qubits within the decade.
The Real-World Stakes
The implications of breaking RSA are far-reaching. A functioning quantum decryption machine would grant access to encrypted emails, bank accounts, and classified government files. This makes the development of quantum-resistant cryptography an urgent priority.
Despite the hardware hurdles, experts urge caution. Lawrence Cohen, Iceberg Quantum, emphasizes that conservative timelines are misleading. “Somebody breaking RSA would have big consequences, and it’s always much, much better to err on the side of this could very much happen sooner rather than later.”
The Path Forward: Quantum-Resistant Solutions
While the threat is real, the quantum computing community is responding. IBM has already identified qLDPC codes as a cornerstone of its quantum computer development. Other approaches, such as using cold atoms or ions, could also offer viable solutions.
The race is on. The development of quantum computers capable of breaking RSA is no longer a distant threat; it’s a rapidly approaching reality. The world must prepare by transitioning to quantum-resistant encryption standards before the stakes become irreversible.
